The Road to Artificial General Intelligence

That wide variability reflects one fundamental truth about AI in general and the pursuit of AGI in particular: the field has long been subject to periods of long dormancy punctuated by astonishing advances that propel exponential growth, in terms of both performance and interest. Creating AGI will likely require fundamental new developments, paradigm-shifting technological and conceptual breakthroughs. When those will come is simply unpredictable, by any intelligence.